President Donald Trump doesn’t have much of a primary fight on his hands — but Republican voters are nevertheless turning out in droves for him, a warning sign for Democrats in November.
The massive turnout is a reflection of organic enthusiasm among conservatives and a sophisticated effort by Trump's campaign to rev up its get-out-the-vote machine ahead of the general election. Trump and Vice President Mike Pence have been traveling to states with primaries and caucuses just ahead of voting since New Hampshire. In addition, the campaign has flooded those states with high-profile surrogates and launched a Facebook advertising blitz reminding supporters to cast ballots.
The efforts are paying off, with Republicans turning out in historic numbers. Trump received more than 31,000 votes in the Iowa caucus, surpassing the 25,000 Democrats who turned out during Barack Obama’s successful 2012 reelection bid. In New Hampshire, the president received 129,696 votes, more than doubling Bush's and Obama’s totals in 2004 and 2012, respectively.
The trend has continued. In Michigan Tuesday, the president accumulated over 640,000 votes, three times what Obama garnered in 2012. Trump’s share across all primaries and caucuses thus far is more than four times the number of Republicans who turned out for George W. Bush in the 2004 reelection campaign.
Anything can happen between now and the general election, of course, particularly with the overly hyped, panic-inducing coronavirus media coverage. The results still highlight the degree to which Trump’s base is energized.
Sixteen months after the president’s party suffered sweeping losses in the midterm elections, Republicans are bent on ensuring that Trump wins a second term.
“There is a personal vote for Donald Trump that is unshakeable,” said John Couvillon, a Louisiana-based pollster who has been tracking the primary totals. “Republican voters are willing to go out" to vote for Trump even though he doesn't have a formidable primary challenge.
Even the liberal media is admitting that impeachment lit a fire under the Trump base and conservatives as a whole. Combined with a real fear for the Republic should Bernie Sanders be the Democrat nominee and the near-universal perception that Joe Biden has serious mental health issues, the fire will likely burn bright through election day.
Democrats are calling for Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) to drop out of the race after big wins across the country on Mini-Super Tuesday, but President Trump's primary totals are giving the party nightmares. (Photo: CNN)
“This is the problem that every party finds itself in when it's running against an incumbent president,” said Scott Jennings, who served as a top political aide in the George. W. Bush White House. “Trump is going to be difficult to beat, just like Obama was difficult to beat and just like Bush was difficult to beat.”
The record primary and caucus turnouts for Trump have kept the president from suffering the kind of embarrassment experienced by George W. Bush in 2004, when he narrowly beat challenger Pat Buchanan in the New Hampshire primary.
Even so, the president's orbit took notice that Republican rival Bill Weld won a single delegate in Iowa. He also garnered just over nine percent of the vote in New Hampshire. That can be credited to him being from “right next door” as the former governor of liberal Massachusetts.
Now, after Super Tuesday and Mini-Super Tuesday, Trump on the cusp of clearing the 1,237-delegate total to clinch the nomination — not that it was ever remotely in doubt. But Trump has garnered those delegates with enormous voter turnouts at every primary and caucus.
Democratic turnout in the first two states was more mixed by comparison. The party has fallen far short of the record-setting 2008 primary run.
After the first four primary and caucus states cast their ballots, Josh Schwerin, the senior strategist at the liberal Priorities USA super PAC, rejected the idea that Trump’s turnout is a red flag for Democrats. Trump had bolstered his totals with personal visits and advertising, he noted, and the voter influx isn't entirely organic.
“Turnout is going to be high on both sides,” Schwerin said, “and both sides will need to fight for an edge in November.”
Turnout on mini-Super Tuesday was up slightly, but otherwise he’s been dead wrong. The developing trend among Democrats is simply to beat Trump, and they are choosing a possibly senile former vice-president over a Communist to do it. The Democrats don’t want to see what is probably coming in November.
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